How much will US data center construction spending be in October 2026?

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The number

Each month the Census Bureau estimates the value of private data center construction put in place in the US, as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.¹ Buildings, site work, backup power and cooling count; racks and servers do not.² The monthly series starts in January 2014.¹

How Census estimates it

• A sample of projects. Drawn from Dodge Construction Network's lists of project starts. Projects of $100 million or more are all included.³
• Owners report monthly, voluntarily. For a project that has not reported, Census fills in its total cost times the share that similar projects had completed at the same age. In 2025, 78% of private nonresidential dollars were filled in this way.³
• Earlier months change. Filled-in values are redone each month and late reports replace them, and each release so far has revised the two months before it. A yearly revision comes each July.^3,4
• Projects missing from the lists are covered by raising the total 25%.³

The question

Will the first published figure for October 2026 be above each of eleven strikes, from $90B to $115B in steps of $2.5B? Census publishes it on Dec 1, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET.⁵ Later revisions do not count.⁶ Rules →

Sources

1. US Census Bureau. Value of Private Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annual rate, monthly. Release of 2026-11-02.
2. US Census Bureau. Construction Spending definitions.
3. US Census Bureau. Value Put in Place methodology.
4. US Census Bureau. Analysis of revisions to monthly estimates.
5. US Census Bureau. Construction Spending release schedule.
6. Kalshi. KXDATACENTCON market rules.

Last updated 2026-11-10 · history

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